TROTPICKS HALF-YEAR REPORT, 2007 Thursday, August 2, 2007

I started this website at the end of 2006. I didn't know what to expect because I haven't sold harness picks on a regular basis since I took my tipsheet Pandy's Picks off the New York and Ct. Newstands in 1998. Obviously the market for harness racing isn't as good as thoroughbreds, although my Diamond Handicapping System for Harness sells well. But the response has been pretty good. That's said, the main reason I started the service was because I wanted to start betting harness racing again, sort of get back to my roots. I'd kind of soured on the sport from a betting standpoint because of the short prices. When Roosevelt and Yonkers were still the top tracks, I made my reputation as a longshot handicapper. Once the speed and chalk started to dominate, due to the new sulkys, it just wasn't for me. But with the racino and slot money, the racing got better so I decided to get back into it on a regular basis.

I'm glad I did. I've bet harness every day this year and I've shown a profit every month. And, I've had plenty of longshot winners. Since April, for instance, I've had $40.60, $17.60, $17.00,$14.00, $13.80, $12.30, $11.20, $11.00 $10.00 winners, and many that paid in the 5-2 and 7-2 range. Considering that I only give out a few horses a day, very good. And overall I think the exotics have been good, but you have to use common sense. For instance, whereas at a track like Monticello I'm spot on, at other tracks, like Balmoral/Hawthorne, you may want to spread a bit more. For instance last night my Live Longshot finished 2nd, but I made good money on the race because I used it in exacta boxes with the 2nd and 3rd picks and the exacta paid $76.80. I know that Hawthorne is wide open and you can't trust the favorite, which was my 2nd choice. The $76.80 price was a gift considering that there were only 3 horses in the race that figured. I didn't even use my 4th choice, just underneath in trifectas. A lot of people ask me how they should play my picks, but I don't feel that's my job. I'm the handicapper, you're the bettor. I may tell you to bet to win and then I'll have a cold superfecta, which I had recently, and you'll get a much lower return than you could. The thing is, everyone's different and you have to bet the way that's comfortable for you. 

I have to admit that it doesn't come as easy to me as it did back in the half-mile track glory days. Back then I would watch a race and see a horse make a move and say, "next week from any post." Many of those horses won back and paid huge prices, often from the outside posts, which is what I was known for. People overestimated the severity of posts 7 and 8, which were actually the best posts to bet because of the huge overlays.

Modern day harness racing requires a lot more work and patience. Many of the winners I bet and give out for the Trotpicks service are from my horses to watch list that I compile each week for Harness Eye. This takes me at least 6 hours a week, just on chart study, and that doesn't include the hours spent watching races. And I'm not just looking at a race and saying, "that horse raced well." About 90% of the horses either raced in a "hot race" where the fractions were exceptionally fast for the class, or the horse made a move that was exceptionally fast for the class. You can't just bet horses back because it looked like they were finishing fast, you'll lose your shirt. The mathematics is more important than the visual. Every week I come out with around 125 horses to watch. I don't bet them all back because many go up in class, or simply get tough spots. Sometimes those win and pay big prices and we don't have them, but that's part of the game. I'm looking to get prices, but also have a good win percentage.

As the year has gone on, I've given out less favorites and more price horses. For some reason, my favorites were winning at a very high rate in the winter, but when it started to get warmer, they seemed to all of a sudden get a lot of tough trips, probably because the drivers get over aggressive when the speed starts to hold on better. So I adjusted and stuck with more LS horses (Live Longshots), which have shown a nice flat bet profit on the service.

I'm proud of the Trotpicks service. I put the work in and it shows. I haven't had one person complain. I wish I could come up with more horses at the Meadowlands, but that track just doesn't fit into my profile right now. For instance, I gave out a horse earlier in the year that paid $19.80 at The Meadows in Pennsylvania, nailed the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta, all good prices.

When I picked this horse, I was confident that it would win. I made J D's Touring 7-2 on my line. Although I use pace handicapping (Diamond System) I am basically a class handicapper and J Ds Touring was clearly the class of the field. That's why I wasn't worried about post 9. Plus he has speed, he wired the field. But my point is, at The Meadowlands, I can't find too many horses that I feel are clearly the best horse in the race and are going off at 9-1. In the heyday at Roosevelt and Yonkers, I consistently bet winners like this, good prices, and I was sure that the horse was the best horse in the race. That's value. People tell me that you have to bet the overlays at the Meadowlands. I'm not into taking stabs, it's not the way I play. I bet on sharp horses that either have a class edge or at least fit well on class, and they also have to fit on certain speed and pace criteria based on formulas I've developed (basically system filters). Most of the horses that I give out on the Trotpicks service are horses that I truly feel are either the best, or very close to the best horse in the race, even the longshots.

Next year I'm going to take a difference approach to the Meadowlands, something I've been working on. Many things that used to work at that track just don't hold up anymore. For instance, years ago, any horse that raced well first over into the wind was an automatic bet back and you could not lose, year in and year out these horses showed a profit, not anymore. And, there was a time that you could bet back any horse that finished fast in the stretch. Not any more. Many of the longshot winners at the Big M are horses that struggle to keep up with the intense pace, and then get into a race that unfolds at a softer pace and wake up. Traditional handicapping methods don't work there, in my opinion. The track isn't as banked as it used to be, and that's just one of the reasons why (not as many wide closers).

Another thing I've done this year is study harness racing more intensely. I'm always making adjustments to my methodology. I've been trying to write a Harness Handicapping book but I keep changing the way do do things. That's how you win. When and if my book finally comes out, it will be a step by step method that's foolproof. Although I'm not even sure if I want to finish it, because it will probably sell for around $35.00 but be worth a hundred times that. Should I just give away all my secrets that I've spent 36 years developing?

So the Trotpicks service will continue to evolve. When I started my Sharphorses (www.sharphorses.com) service about 6 years ago, it was nowhere near as good as it is now. The past two and a half years my Live Longshots that I give out have shown a substantial flat bet service. But my thoroughbred handicapping methods have also changed over the years and are still changing. I figured out how to get more longshot winners.

One thing I can tell you about Trotpicks, you can't be afraid to bet closers. One of the reasons why I can get overlays is because the public, generally speaking, puts too much emphasis on speed horses, inside posts, and the top driver. Class rules and class wins from on or off the pace, and from any post.

Thanks to all of you who subscribe.